Academy Awards night 2007 is coming: Predictions for sure winners, close calls

Rachel Pittenger Staff Writer

The climax of the awards season has finally arrived—Oscar Night falls on Sunday, Feb. 25, and while the crop of noteworthy movies is sizable this year, the critics are having a hard time identifying the “shoo-ins” in some of the major categories. The year 2006 brought an impressive variety of nominees to the stage, with hard-hitting dramas such as Babel, Notes on a Scandal, and The Departed. We saw a handful of history-inspired and political pictures such as Letters from Iwo Jima, The Queen, and Pan’s Labyrinth. And, of course, the musical and comedy category featured Dreamgirls, Borat, and my personal favorite, Little Miss Sunshine. Though some of the major categories are nearly impossible to speculate upon at this point, I will offer my predictions for who will take home the statues.

The Best Picture category looks to be the most difficult to call. This group features Babel, The Departed, Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine and The Queen. Often times, the Best Drama winner at the Golden Globes will determine who wins the Oscar, but this is certainly not always the case. Last year, for example, Crash pulled off a surprise victory at the Academy Awards after losing out at the Globes. Thus, although Babel won the Globes for Best Drama in 2007, many critics argue that it does not have a guaranteed golden statue waiting for it on Feb. 25. The reviews for this movie were not overwhelmingly positive, leading many critics to believe that the award will go to Martin Scorsese’s The Departed. Despite my personal vote for Little Miss Sunshine, I think Scorsese’s film looks to be the frontrunner—it had the greatest audience appeal, big box office income, and it could be Scorsese’s first film to win a Best Picture Oscar. Indeed, after five losses, this finally looks to be Scorsese’s year to shine, after five losses.

In the Best Actor category, the predictions are looking slightly more one-sided, though by no means unanimous. Forest Whitaker, who won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama, will likely take home the Oscar for his disturbing but powerful portrayal of Ugandan dictator Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland. The praise for Whitaker’s role in this film has been nonstop since its release, and the Academy is likely to continue this trend by giving him the prize. The other nominees are Leonardo DiCaprio in Blood Diamond, Ryan Gosling in Half Nelson, Peter O’Toole in Venus and Will Smith in The Pursuit of Happyness. But none of these actors seem to fully embody their characters as Whitaker does, and even with O’Toole’s previous nominations, odds are he will have to wait for another try.

The chances that Helen Mirren will win Best Actress for The Queen are so good that there will likely be public outrage if she doesn’t. Like Whitaker, Mirren portrays a historical figure in this film about Queen Elizabeth II and her controversial response to the 1997 death of Princess Diana. Critics say that Mirren plays this role so accurately that she could be mistaken for the queen herself, and the Academy is not likely to disregard this praise in making their decisions. Of course, she also won the Golden Globe, and if she loses out to her competitors (Volver’s Penelope Cruz, Notes on a Scandal’s Judi Dench, fellow Globe-winner Meryl Streep in The Devil Wears Prada and Little Children’s Kate Winslet), audiences everywhere will likely be shocked. On a personal note, as good as Mirren was at embodying Queen Elizabeth, I’m still pulling for Streep’s portrayal of the ultimate ice queen in Prada.

The other major categories that should be considered are those of Best Supporting Actor and Actress, both of which have practically already been determined. Though it was snubbed for the Best Picture nomination, Dreamgirls still received nominations in several categories, and will likely get the win in both Best Actor and Actress in a Supporting Role. Eddie Murphy plays a struggling musician who deals with drug problems and corruption within the music business, a character very different from his typically comedic roles. Murphy is impressive and comfortable in his own skin, showing off not only his dramatic acting chops, but his singing voice as well.
As for Supporting Actress, according to critics, perhaps no other nominee in all of the categories is more of a shoo-in than Jennifer Hudson. She plays Effie White, the diva with impressive pipes who becomes estranged from the singing group The Dreams once Beyoncé Knowles’s character takes over the lead vocals. Hudson was a final contender on American Idol, and the fact that this is her first film role makes the nomination—and likely win—all the more impressive. As another side note, however, despite Hudson’s impressive premiere performance, Abigail Breslin’s final dance in Little Miss Sunshine should earn her the award.

In the spirit of plugging Little Miss Sunshine, which was the best movie of 2006 in my book, I predict its win for Best Original Screenplay (written by Michael Arndt). Since the film will probably be snubbed in the other major categories, I hope that this smart, hilarious script will get its due. Once again, it has tough competition from Babel, Letters from Iwo Jima, The Queen, and Pan’s Labyrinth, but the Academy should acknowledge Arndt’s genius and give him the award.

While some of the winners seem set in stone, it will be interesting to see how other closer competitions play out. Throw in Ellen DeGeneres as the host, and the Academy Awards is sure to be a night to remember.